EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Center|Why Michigan expected Alabama's play-call on last snap of Rose Bowl

PASADENA,EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Center Calif. – Trevor Keegan didn’t watch Alabama’s final play Monday in the Rose Bowl. Instead, the Michigan offensive lineman buried his head into the turf and said a prayer while Alabama’s Jalen Milroe tried to gain the 3 yards necessary to extend the game.

Milroe gained none. Michigan’s defensive line made sure of it.

The Michigan crowd's reaction told Keegan that the Wolverines had made the stop, and he launched his helmet high into the California sky.

The Wolverines won 27-20 in overtime by stuffing a fourth-down play they knew was coming.

Multiple Michigan players I spoke with in the locker room after the game said they fully expected Milroe would try to run it into the end zone on fourth-and-3.

I could make a sign-stealing quip, but that wouldn’t be right. This was just common sense.

"I think everybody in the stadium thought quarterback run was coming," Michigan offensive lineman LaDarius Henderson said.

"If I was them, I probably would have done the exact same thing. He’s their best player on offense. You want to put the ball in your best player’s hands, but we all knew it was coming."

Alabama's offense encountered serious limitations throughout the game. Milroe's runs ranked as the Tide's best weapon.

Michigan’s blanketing secondary took away Milroe’s usual dose of deep completions, and his 116 passing yards were a season low. Milroe used his legs to ignite Alabama after halftime. His 15-yard run in overtime created Alabama’s red-zone opportunity. With the season on the line, offensive coordinator Tommy Rees once again trusted his quarterback’s athleticism.

"It’s going to be in No. 4’s hands," Michigan linebacker Michael Barrett said of the Wolverines’ expectation for the final play.

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Nick Saban said the Milroe run was one of its 2-point conversion plays Alabama had prepared for Michigan. The Wolverines loaded eight men into the box. A low snap got the play off to a sloppy start. It became the last of several poor snaps that persistently affected Alabama’s offense.

The final play became a fitting ending. For most of the game, Michigan looked like the better-prepared team. The Wolverines executed better, too. That held true through the final bad snap.

Quarterback draws are dangerous red-zone plays, especially with a player as dynamic as Milroe. But asking Milroe to gain 3 yards against a stacked defense that expected the play is a tall order.

"Milroe, he’s the best player on that team," Barrett said. "Hats off to him. He’s elusive, he’s a great quarterback, but we just knew that he was going to get the ball in his hands somehow. We knew he was going to be the one running the ball, and he came right to us."

I could argue Rees should’ve opted for something more creative, but considering how Michigan persistently harassed Milroe on pass plays, combined with the Wolverines’ iron-clad secondary, and I understand why Rees opted to keep it simple and trusted Milroe to try to make a play.

"Tommy just felt like the best thing that we could do was have a quarterback run," Saban said. "... We didn’t get it blocked, so it didn’t work. We didn’t execute it very well."

This loss was less about any single play and more about Alabama’s inability to find much rhythm against an opponent that showed why it possesses the nation’s stingiest defense.

Worse than Alabama’s fourth-down play was the play two snaps previously, when Mason Graham blew through Alabama’s line to stuff Jase McClellan for a 5-yard loss.

"They really haven’t seen a defense like ours," Barrett said. "They weren’t prepared for the movements and the schemes that we have."

Barrett’s brash assessment rang true. Alabama looked unprepared to handle Michigan.

Barrett had hoped the game would come down to Michigan's defense needing to make a stop.

Why?

"We don’t flinch," Barrett said.

It helped knowing the play Alabama would call.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's SEC Columnist. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.